BitcoinBTC reclaimed the $95,000 level after briefly testing below $91,000 on November 26. This two-day, 5% rally marked a decoupling from traditional markets, particularly U.S. government bonds. This shift contrasts with the previous week when Bitcoin’s price closely tracked the US 2-Year Treasury note yields.
US 2-Year Treasury price vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph
If investors are moving away from Bitcoin’s "risk-on" perception due to its hard monetary policy and censorship-resistant features, the likelihood of reaching $100,000 before year-end increases. Given that some of the world’s largest economies are facing growth challenges, it’s likely that investors will seek refuge in scarce assets, supporting Bitcoin’s performance.
On November 28, the 10-year yield on French government debt rose to 3%, matching Greece’s debt yields. According to CNBC, "this data shows the extent of concerns over political turmoil in France as the government struggles to get support for its 2025 budget that aims to cut spending." The projected budget deficit for 2024 is 6.1%, more than double the eurozone’s proposed limit of 3%. Russia, another global economic powerhouse, saw its domestic currency, the ruble, drop to its lowest level since March 2022, prompting central bank intervention despite inflation soaring to 8.5% in October.
Russia, another global economic powerhouse,… Source: CNBC
The central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, but persistent price increases remain a challenge.
Bitcoin ETF inflows and miner accumulation boost bullish outlook
Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also helped improve investor sentiment, reversing a two-day negative streak on November 27. The $103 million net inflow was primarily directed into Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB, while BlackRock’s leading IBIT fund remained flat. This marked a significant turnaround from the previous $548 million outflow on November 25 and 26.
Bitcoin miners’ 7-day average net flows. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin miners’ flows ended a 10-day stretch of average outflows, according to Glassnode data, with increasing deposits on miner-controlled addresses. While this is an estimate lacking official confirmation, it has nonetheless contributed to a more bullish market sentiment.
Typically, miners’ accumulation signals confidence in the ongoing bull market, while profit-taking often generates unwarranted fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). To provide context, the 30-day average miner revenue stands at 476 BTC, suggesting that at least 30% in outflows should be expected to cover these expenses.
Russia, another global economic powerhouse,… Source: CNBC
The central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, but persistent price increases remain a challenge.
The central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, but persistent price increases remain a challenge.
