As we approach the end of 2024, the cryptocurrency market is entering its latter stages of the current bull cycle. According to data analytics provider CryptoQuant, caution is advised for investors as the market is likely to reach its cyclical peak in the first quarter of 2025 or the second quarter at the latest.
The Bull Market: A Closer Look
Crypto Dan, a contributor to CryptoQuant, notes that the bull market began in January 2023. With a substantial influx of new investments and additional funds from existing investors, it is reasonable to expect that the market is now in the latter stages of this cycle.
A Potential Warning Sign
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) traded for less than one month spiked to 36%. This pattern resembles prior crypto market tops, according to CryptoQuant. The ratio of short-term trading activity is likely to continue rising, potentially increasing by two to four times before correcting at the start of a bear cycle.
Implications for Investors
While expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open, CryptoQuant advises caution from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind. This cautious approach contrasts with the views of most analysts who expect the bull run to continue through the end of 2025.
Contrasting Views: A Look at Analysts’ Expectations
Steno Research: 2025 Will Be Crypto’s Best Year Ever
Analysts at Steno Research are bullish on the cryptocurrency market, expecting 2025 to be crypto’s best year ever. They predict that BTC and Ether (ETH) will crush all-time highs, among other potential "remarkable positive developments."
VanEck: A Medium-Term Peak in Q1 2025
Asset manager VanEck expects the crypto bull market to hit a medium-term peak in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year. They project Bitcoin (BTC) to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum trading above $6,000.
Polymarket and Kalshi: Betting on Record Highs
Traders on betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi expect BTC and ETH to hit record highs in 2025. They also anticipate the United States greenlighting several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
The Importance of Risk Management
While analysts’ expectations are bullish, it is essential for investors to remain cautious and consider risk management strategies. The cryptocurrency market can be highly volatile, and even the most experienced investors can fall victim to market fluctuations.
Conclusion
As we approach the end of 2024, the cryptocurrency market is entering its latter stages of the current bull cycle. While expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open, caution is advised from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind.
Key Takeaways
- The cryptocurrency market is likely to reach its cyclical peak in the first quarter of 2025 or the second quarter at the latest.
- Caution is advised for investors as the market enters its latter stages of the current bull cycle.
- Expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open, but risk management strategies are essential.
Recommended Reading
- How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025
- The impact of regulatory changes on the cryptocurrency market
- Strategies for managing risk in a volatile market
