Americans Expect Stock Boost in 2025 Despite Ongoing Global and Political Conflict

A recent survey by management consulting firm Gallup has shed light on Americans’ expectations for the upcoming year. The poll, conducted between December 4-15 with a sample of up to 100,000 registered participants, reveals a mixed picture of optimism and concern.

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Stock Market Outlook: A Brighter Future Ahead?

According to the survey, two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe that the stock market will gain in 2025. This represents a significant increase from the 2023 outlook, which was taken in December 2022 amidst high inflation and low economic confidence. The current figure marks a 30 percentage point rise compared to the previous year’s expectations.

While this may be seen as a positive sign for investors, it is essential to consider the broader context of global events that can impact financial markets.

Political Conflict: A Growing Concern

The survey also highlights concerns over political conflict within the US and internationally. Only 23% of Americans expect "positive" political cooperation under the Trump administration, while 32% predict a somewhat peaceful international environment in 2025. These figures are an improvement from the 9% and 14% recorded in 2023’s survey outcomes for US political cooperation and international peace, respectively.

These sentiments may have implications for the crypto market, which is known to be closely tied to traditional financial markets. As we will explore later, a sustained rise in the stock market can often coincide with a Bitcoin rally, but this relationship is not without its risks.

Crypto Markets: A Volatile Relationship

Data from Newhedge shows that Bitcoin’s price movements are highly correlated with the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index. While some industry executives argue that Bitcoin’s price is more closely tied to tech stocks, the relationship between cryptocurrency prices and traditional financial markets remains complex.

History has shown that a sustained rise in the stock market can often coincide with a Bitcoin rally as investors become more willing to take on risk. However, this correlation also means that if international disputes escalate, Bitcoin may be in for a bumpy ride.

The recent example of Iran’s bombing of Israel and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are stark reminders of how global events can impact cryptocurrency prices. In both cases, Bitcoin plummeted by 8% and 11%, respectively, within hours of the news breaking.

Economic Difficulty: A Growing Concern

While a larger share of respondents (54%) expect increasing or full employment and 52% predict reasonable price growth in 2025, a significant portion (44%) see this year as more likely to be one of economic difficulty. The rising federal budget deficit and increased power dynamics with China are major concerns.

The survey’s findings also highlight the partisan divide on America’s outlook for 2025. Republicans were found to be more optimistic than Democrats, which is not surprising given that it is typical for Americans who identify with the new president’s party to hold more positive expectations for the year ahead.

Impact on Crypto Markets

The crypto market itself has seen generally optimistic forecasts for 2025. Some have tipped a far more crypto-friendly Trump administration and even the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which could further bolster Bitcoin’s performance against notable stock market indexes in 2025.

However, Gallup’s survey was conducted before the Federal Reserve’s market committee trimmed the number of projected interest rate cuts from five to two in December. This decision may create a less favorable macro environment for the stock market and risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Americans’ expectations for 2025 are mixed, with optimism for the stock market contrasting with concerns over political conflict and economic difficulty. The crypto market’s relationship with traditional financial markets is complex, but history suggests that a sustained rise in the stock market can often coincide with a Bitcoin rally.

However, this correlation also means that if global events escalate, Bitcoin may be in for a bumpy ride. As investors, it is essential to stay informed and adapt to changing circumstances to make informed investment decisions.

Gallup’s 2025 Poll: A Breakdown of Results

The following table provides a breakdown of Gallup’s 2025 poll results:

| Question | Percentage |
| — | — |
| Expect stock market gain in 2025 | 66% |
| Expect positive political cooperation under Trump administration | 23% |
| Expect somewhat peaceful international environment in 2025 | 32% |
| Expect increasing or full employment in 2025 | 54% |
| Expect reasonable price growth in 2025 | 52% |
| See 2025 as more likely a year of economic difficulty | 44% |

Additional Insights

The survey also highlighted the following insights:

Republicans were found to be more optimistic than Democrats, which is consistent with past trends.
The partisan divide on America’s outlook for 2025 is significant, with Republicans holding more positive expectations.
The rising federal budget deficit and increased power dynamics with China are major concerns for Americans.